Blockchain and Contrarians...

Lately I've been investing some time to understand Blockchain — what it is and what it isn't; how it works and what does it mean for the future; should I get involved with it or stay a million miles away. As part of my process I wanted to blog about it for a number of reasons: 

1. Help galvanize my thinking and understanding of Blockchain.
2. Work on my language so I could clearly articulate my thinking about Blockchain.
3. Stimulate discussion and feedback on the topic to help with my thinking.

And for my efforts my friend Phil Friedman posted a blog entitled, "Some important truths about cryptocurrencies". To my surprise (and great appreciation) Phil dedicated his post to me.

This piece was inspired by Graham Edwards, who may or may not agree with what I've said here, but who is always, as I see it, an authentic contrarian and more than willing to explore concepts and ideas openly and honestly. Thank you, Graham, for being a good sport.

I suppose this blog is a bait and switch because I don't really want to discuss Blockchain technology but re-enforce something much more important — the value of the Contrarian. Phil's dedication wasn't just a great compliment but an important reminder about what is needed to drive better understanding (as well as better decision-making).

con·trar·i·an [kənˈtre(ə)rēən] NOUN — a person who opposes or rejects popular opinion  ADJECTIVE — opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against current practice or thinking:

There is a Truism that says if you want to make a good decision you really have to understand the situation. And to really understand a situation you have to look at it from as many perspectives as possible — and ask questions you probably haven't even thought of. As Phil says, "...explore concepts and ideas openly and honestly." 

I view the contrarian as a facilitator —

• They help prevent groupthink.
• They push back to ensure there is a discussion.
• They ask the questions that may not get asked (for many reasons)
• They offer a different perspective
• They ask the question, "Why is that person running in the opposite direction? What does she know that we don't"
• They know it's easier to agree — although they also know it doesn't really serve the discussion.

Contrarians are crucial for developing better understanding and better answers — and yes, maybe we can be a pain in the ass sometimes (but it's for your own good).

I suppose since Phil was nice enough to dedicate his blog to me I should use it to help with my continued understanding of Blockchain and it's partner in crime, cryptocurrency. In his blog, Phil had identified five cryptocurrency truths —

Truth #1: Crypto-currencies do not have any intrinsic value. Whatever value they have to an owner depends entirely on someone else wanting to buy them. Therefore, investing in such currencies amounts to nothing other than gambling on rising demand, whether that demand is rational or irrational.

I totally agree. As an intrinsic value investor myself I would never invest in any currency for that matter. If you can't calculate it's intrinsic value you simply can't determine if you are buying too high or too low. It's why Warren Buffet has very little interest in cryptocurrency (and my portfolio manager for that matter).

Truth #2: No single crypto-currency held by an investor will ever appreciate in "value" as long as the issuer of that currency continues to sell the currency at the same price or lower than that paid by the investor in question.

I also agree... in theory. In reality many markets are inefficient and allow for arbitrage opportunities. I was shocked when someone said they make $7,000 per month with retail arbitrage — they buy product on Craig's list and then turn around and sell it on eBay for a higher price.  

Truth #3: You cannot rely on the advice about investing in crypto-currencies from anyone who has already invested in them.

I agree. For me it's like the person who enthusiastically offers a "stock tip. I do believe they can offer insight as to how the "crypto-currency" ecosystem works, but I'm not taking investment advice from them.

Truth #4: Decentralized blockchain-based data-keeping was originally associated with Bitcoin crypto-currency as a means for imbuing the system with perceived credibility. 

This is where I think Phil and I look at Blockchain differently and maybe it's my issue over the term "perceived credibility". My understanding is because of blockchain the "double spend dilemma" was eliminated. And because of this, internet currency could be created without the concern of it being copied 1,000,000,000,000 times. Blockchain has created a "credible internet currency" — now what that currency value is, well that's another discussion. And although I agree crypto-currency doesn't have any intrinsic value, I do believe it can have associated value with whatever ecosystem it is part of. Much like paper money. 

And this is what excites me — something of value can now be created for our efforts in Internet ecosystems. 

Truth #5: Investing and trading in crypto-currencies is a zero-sum game.

All I can say is there will be many people that make money and there will be many people who lose money. What I can also say is cryptocurrency isn't going away anytime soon.

Again thanks to Phil for dedicating his blog post to me; thanks even more for your thoughts, perspectives, and way of thinking. It's the only way for me to better understand.

So is the way of the Contrarian. 

iamgpe

My understanding of Blockchain continues (at least I keep telling myself that)...

"My caution to all is get as much information as you can about this technology but look hard at what they are saying. I'm pretty sure there is a pony in here under all this manure."                                                                                                                                               — Jerry Fletcher

Jerry is a smart man so I have continued to get as much information as I can about Blockchain technology — not only to understand it for cocktail party banter but to determine if there is a place for me in all of it. 

As I continue to dig into the utility of Blockchain technology I've categorized it into three general areas for consideration —

1. Blockchain technology used in a centralized manner for data integrity and process efficiency — current trust institutions (such as banks) that want to be more efficient and effective with the integrity of their data management.
2. Blockchain technology used in a decentralized manner to disrupt current trust institutions and middlemen — challenging the way we do things, such as banking.
3. Blockchain technologies used in a decentralized manner to create new "ecosystems", as well as new value creation becasue of its activities — the creation of defined value where there was none before (represented through its cryptocurrency).

As I have mentioned before, I am not a very good futurist so there are probably many other areas of consideration.

I've also come to appreciate that if you're looking at Blockchain from a "decentralized perspective" you need to have some sort of "currency or token" involved — it is used as an incentive for the network (or "ecosystem") to ensure it works properly. A currency is required to support the efforts of the people in the network in a sustainable way, and ultimately will reflect the value associated with what is happening in the ecosystem. 

As I continue to search for the "pony" I have come to believe I'll align with the third consideration for two simple reasons — I don't have any coding skills to speak of that would help an established institution and I just don't have the energy to be very disruptive. Although strangely enough, I do have the energy to get involved with new ecosystems. Go figure. Maybe it's my marketing background, or my increased efforts with blogging, or my interests in personal branding or even my increased involvement with social media... I don't really know; whatever the reason though, it seems my place in all of this is leaning towards blockchain and it's utility with social media — and I suppose by extension, personal data and identity in the virtual world.

Because more than ever we are living in both the real and virtual world (with each becoming as real as the other) — and frankly, I want only one of me in each.

iamgpe

PS — As always let me know where I've gone off the rails.

Moments — over in the blink of an eye

At its very best it would have been a horrific accident resulting in catastrophic injury — and at its worst, well...

The four-day forecast was as follows — twelve degrees Celsius with rain; eleven degrees Celsius with rain; six degrees with sunny periods; two degrees Celsius with rain. In the part of the world where I live the temperature in February should be minus fifteen degrees Celsius on a warm day. Weather as abnormal as this definitely changes your plans about going snowboarding for the day; it instead has you spending an evening with friends (good food, wine, and conversation) and then heading back to the city early the next day (once you've confirmed it's gonna rain some more).

Man-made or not — the weather she is a changin'.

With little traffic on the road I was making good time, and as I came over a rise I lost control of the car — there was a real possibility I was going to spin into the oncoming lane and flip the car into the ditch. I did regain control of the car (as well as my composure) and continued on my way. My only explanation for what happened was I hit a patch of black ice that had formed because of the rain and near freezing temperatures.

It all happened in the blink of an eye.

As I drove on (a little slower I might add) I thought of a conversation we had the night before about our plans for the year; as I reflected on the conversation I became just a little melancholy over the lack of imagination on my part. I had been reminded this is all so very fragile, so the least I could do is be a little more imaginative with what I do.

iamgpe

PS: Thank you KW for the hospitality.